James calls it his favorite toy because it isn’t an exact science. There are park effects, league-wide home run rates, and other variables to consider. Arenado’s chances go up when you consider Coors Field. They’ll get better if he signs an extension.
As a rough estimate, though, they’ll prove my point just fine. For as great as Trout and Harper are, for as young as they are, for as talented as they are, there’s a lot left between them and 600 home runs. A lot of fastballs inside. A lot of legs extended toward first base on a full sprint. A lot of dives. A lot of slides. And a helluva lot of decaying cells.
I did this twice for outfielders because I was absolutely certain that I had missed someone. But I’m pretty sure I didn’t, which means that outfielders almost always stay in the outfield. Infielders might move out, but it’s very rare for outfielders to move in. Huh. That’s a draft tidbit that I didn’t know about, and I’m giving it to you because I’m not sure what to do with it.
If you can find a flaw in this search, please, let me know in the comments and give me a better out-of-position outfield. As is, it’s pretty athletic, I guess, and Helton has that quarterback’s arm in right.
I had to cheat a little with this one, taking some players who were drafted as pitchers out of high school but didn’t sign. When you have a player like John Olerud who could be drafted legitimately at either position, the team announces their decision when they draft him, and that’s generally the end of that. There are exceptions, such as Winfield, who was announced as a pitcher, only to make the majors two weeks later as an outfielder. For the most part, though, when a two-way threat gets one of those ways amputated, it doesn’t grow back.